Social Security, Medicare clash comes down to what constitutes a ‘cut’īipartisan rail safety bill runs into Republican roadblock Texas lawmaker files ‘TEXIT’ bill to spur vote on exploring secession from. What’s at stake as Ukraine clings onto Bakhmut Larry Summers: US economy could face a ‘Wile E. Jordan issues subpoenas over school boards memo, DHS disinformation board Michelle Obama hits Trump over his inauguration: ‘There weren’t that many. Supreme Court declines to hear Florida city’s challenge to atheists Trump blasts Rupert Murdoch in early morning social media post: How can he say. Zelensky pledges to ‘find the murderers’ of Ukrainian soldier executed in. Newsom says California will no longer do business with Walgreens ‘Horrifying’ flight diverted as some passengers vomit in 9-hour. Tucker Carlson shows the first of his Jan. This would do terrible, long-lasting damage to both economies, leaving others, like India, to pick up the pieces. But the process is putting our two nations on a likely path to war. But doing so would require maintaining a tight alliance for decades - something that worked for Athens and Sparta during the Persian Wars but not thereafter. A coalition of the U.S., Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia and India could overwhelm the Chinese tiger. Its secret was external help, from Persia. The real-world barriers to electric vehicle infrastructureĭeSantis doesn’t make sense for friends of freedomĪttempting to rein in China economically and militarily will come at very high cost with unlikely success. Witness, in this regard, our new policies that limit China’s access to chips and commit us to defending Taiwan. Most likely by falling into Thucydides’s trap - the tendency of wanning hegemons (Sparta in Greek historian Thucydides’s day) to pre-emptively confront rising powers (Athens) to retain dominance. Still, short of an immediate and permanent decline in Chinese productivity growth, the 21st century belongs to China. Projections are driven by uncertain assumptions. As for Russia, its share of world output will dwindle to 1 percent, from 3 percent today. By century’s end, China’s economy will, as indicated, be more than twice the size of ours. Today, the U.S. global-GDP share is just 16 percent, in rough parity with China’s. Back then, China’s share of global output was tiny. But revisit 1945, when America’s economy comprised half of the world’s total. This vision of the future may seem inconceivable. But that region’s slow productivity growth means its share of world output will hardly budge - from 2 to 4 percent. What about automation? The West currently has more high-skilled workers to produce and use advanced technology. But, as shown in a companion study, automation must proceed far more rapidly for it to matter. In 2100, Sub-Saharan Africa will have 30 percent more people than China and India combined. and China, will need to dramatically raise their payroll tax rates, the sooner the better, to fund their retirees’ benefits.ĭemographic changes – in population size and age distribution – matter greatly. For Latin America, Central Asia and South Asia, projected aging is equally striking. Aging portends dramatic fiscal stresses, particularly paying pensions to the elderly. Several regions, including the U.S. By 2100, they will constitute 26 percent. Those aged 70 or older currently comprise 6 percent of the population. Interestingly, whether region-specific populations rise or fall, all regions will experience dramatic population aging. Other populations will shrink through 2100 - Japan’s by 40 percent, Western Europe’s by 10 percent, Russia’s by 14 percent and Easter Europe’s by 36 percent. The count of the Middle Easterners plus North Africans is scheduled to rise by almost 800 billion - nearly 2.5 times today’s U.S. This is close to adding the population of two current-day Chinas. By century’s end, Sub-Saharan Africa will have 2.4 billion more people. But they are dwarfed by those coming in Africa and the Middle East. population will grow by some 30 percent, adding roughly 120 million people (more than the current population of the Philippines). In 2100, its population will exceed China’s by 50 percent. India, in contrast, is due to gain 400 million plus inhabitants. and India, 30 percent as productive. On the other hand, China’s population is slated to shrink by century’s end by 400 million people (i.e., by more than the current U.S. level by 2050. In 2100, China will be as productive as the U.S. ![]() The two major forces determining a region’s economic future are its labor productivity growth and its demographics. Based on historical data, China’s and India’s labor productivity will, respectively, reach 30 percent and 13 percent of the U.S.
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